1. Building the Longevity Economy will take systems, not pilots

Here’s a piece I wrote with Anne Montgomery and a couple of others for Generations Journal, from the American Society on Aging. In short, ageing populations aren’t necessarily a fiscal threat, but to make them an opportunity we need to think systemically. AARP puts the over-50 contribution to GDP as $45 trillion in 2020 (fully a third of the total).

Nearly 20% of 65+ Americans were working in 2023, 62% of them full-time, double the 1987 rate. Since 2023, the world has had more people over 50 than children under 15, and the child population will not grow before 2040.

We propose a structural fix: research, collaboration and investment. First, responsible AI and shared data infrastructure. Second, rapid testbeds and smart-home microlabs feeding evidence-based scale-ups. And third, field-building to shift policy, capital and narrative together. Project-based funding alone won’t cut it.

The So What: A fair and equitable longevity economy will be built via ecosystem orchestration, not just piloting new tech.

2. Young stem cells reboot the immune systems of mice

A new piece in Nature shows that transplanted blood stem cells from young mice into old ones restored both blood production and immune function. The trick was doing it gently.

Instead of chemotherapy or radiation, the team used an antibody that targets defective stem cells specifically, then flushed the old cells into the bloodstream while injecting fresh ones. The young cells won the race back to the bone marrow.

The old mice regained production of naïve B and T cells, the frontline responders that fade with age. The lead author is blunt about the timeline: clinical use remains distant. His speculative version is banking your own cells in your twenties and redeploying them in your fifties, replacing a blood system the way you replace a hip.

The So What: Longevity’s next frontier may be logistics, not biology: bank young, redeploy later.

3. Casana launches - a wearable that you sit on

Casana has raised $46 million to launch a $199 sensor-embedded toilet seat, and is betting that “sittables” beat wearables on the metric that matters: adherence. The seat swaps in like any replacement, identifies each user automatically via AI bio-ID, and reads blood pressure, heart rate, blood oxygen and respiratory rate through PPG, ECG and ballistocardiogram sensors.

The target market is deliberately unfashionable. Over 48% of US adults have high blood pressure, yet cuffs go uncharged and unused, and most people over 65 will not wrestle with a device that needs installing, wearing and calibrating. Whoop and Oura, valued at $10 billion and $11 billion, proved the appetite. Casana is chasing the people they miss.

Interestingly, and not obvious from most coverage (I spoke to the founder a few months ago), they’ve only been cleared by the FDA for heart rate and blood oxygen, not blood pressure. So the marketing says ‘blood pressure trends’ as a wellness device, but the device itself shows BP readings, with a (Beta) next to it…

The So What: The best health tech is the kind nobody remembers using.

4. Microplastics associated with 4x heart risk

A study in the New England Journal of Medicine (note from 2024, but still relevant), examined artery plaques surgically removed from 257 adults, and found plastic fragments in 150 of them, visible under the microscope as jagged particles.

Those patients were more than four times as likely to die or suffer a heart attack or stroke as patients whose plaques were plastic-free. The plastic-laden plaques also carried high levels of inflammatory molecules, hinting at a mechanism.

The authors note this is association, not causation, and diet or air pollution could be doing the work (so it could be diet not debris, maybe both). This is a signal that a material we have been swallowing, drinking and breathing for decades may be lodging somewhere it matters.

The So What: We stopped asking where plastic goes: it turns out the answer is us.

AI tool of the week: Flux 3

Since OpenAI pulled Sora, there hasn’t been a great go-to model for simple video creation - this new model Flux 3 however seems to have potential. Check out the video that Ethan Mollick created based on a colourfully inventive prompt:

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

1. Two hundred top economists raise the alarm about AI

Sixteen Nobel laureates and more than 200 economists and AI researchers have signed “We Must Act Now”, warning that artificial intelligence could reshape the economy more profoundly than the Industrial Revolution, and far faster.

Steam, electricity and computers each granted societies decades to adapt; AI, the signatories argue, may allow only a few years. Organised by Stanford’s Erik Brynjolfsson and colleagues, the statement insists the outcome is not predetermined: whether AI broadly lifts living standards or concentrates wealth depends on institutional choices made now, not once the transformation has arrived. Waiting for certainty, they say, means arriving too late.

The So What: Steam gave us decades to adapt. AI is not that patient.

2. Longevity retreats are the new conference

Three interesting longevity-themed retreats have popped up on my radar that combine longevity / wellness themes with a curated group in a secluded setting.

• The Longevity Biotech Fellowship is kicking off its eighth cohort with a retreat in the North Carolina mountains.

• Zo Village - invites you to spend a month working on new wellness ventures with a like-minded group of entrepreneurs, in the woods, 2.5 hours from Tokyo.

• Next Generation Longevity - hosted in Kyoto by a collection of longevity experts, including Anant Vinjamoori, Chief Medical Officer of hims & hers.

Seems to be a new type of product, reacting to the growth in interest of longevity as well as the desire for (re)connection. It’s fairly meta - both discussing the topic of longevity while ensuring the attendees also benefit from longevity experiences - much improved from the standard conference playbook of sitting all day in a windowless conference room and eating bad food. They all also emphasise community and interconnectedness - arguably longevity’s most significant hack.

The So What: The need to be mindfully present with others is probably the flip-side of our ever-accelerating, screen-centric agent-first world.

3. Capitalism and democracy - poor bedfellows?

I generally assumed that democracy and capitalism are two sides of the same coin - one reinforcing the other. But Jason Hickel argues the case that they’re actually at odds.

Political systems let citizens vote for leaders, yet production, the thing shaping daily life, answers only to capital: the corporations, financial firms and the 1% who own most investible assets.

The result is perverse allocation. Fossil fuels and SUVs get overproduced because they are profitable, while housing, transit and renewables languish. As a result, nearly half of Americans cannot afford healthcare, 4.3 million UK children live in poverty, 95 million Europeans cannot afford decent housing and food.

The “vote with your dollars” defence fails, he says, because one billionaire outvotes 66,000 minimum-wage workers, and you cannot buy what capital declines to make. His remedy is economic democracy: public services, a job guarantee, worker-owned firms and directed credit.

The So What: It’s not really a democracy if you can’t vote on what gets built.

4. NYC is building its own tools to solve problems

New York City’s new Public Interest Technology team, the self-styled PIT Crew, is recruiting engineers, designers, researchers and product managers to build digital public goods in-house.

The pitch is clear: tech once felt good, it no longer does, and governments can do something about it. Rather than outsourcing citizen-facing services to contractors, the city is assembling its own product team with a mandate to make interacting with government dignified and delightful. It is a rebuke to the sprawling, failure-prone procurement model that has long defined civic tech.

The So What: It’s a radical and energising idea - that a government can take charge of building itself, not outsourcing.

Data visualisation of the week

This fun tool allows you to see key demographic information - population pyramid, mortality and fertility - of any country as you zoom around the world, presented in an information-rich and visually appealing way

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

1. Demystifying the microbiome

A NYT deep dive into understanding the dark matter of our bodies - our microbiome. Two former MIT postdocs, Mathilde Poyet and Mathieu Groussin, spent a decade doing what microbiome science mostly hasn’t: sampling beyond the wealthy, Western and white populations that dominate the field.

Their Global Microbiome Conservancy now holds one of the world’s largest live-bacteria biobanks, chilled to minus-112 degrees. The findings could force a reckoning: a model predicting health from gut flora in rich countries fails completely everywhere else. Gut bacteria swap up to 100 genes a year, and industrialised guts run noisier, thinner and more inflamed. Even healthy Western microbiomes can resemble sick ones elsewhere.

The general thrust of this work echoes a good NPR piece I listened to this week, which says we still don’t really know what makes up a healthy gut microbiome, and cautions against consumers spending money on gut biome tests.

The So What: The gut-health boom is selling maps of a continent nobody has explored.

2. From ‘impact measurement’ to ‘systems intelligence’

The TransCap Initiative wants to bury a tired phrase. In its new framing, systemic investors should stop “measuring impact” and start cultivating “system intelligence”: a standing organisational function, like finance, built from information flows plus deliberate sensemaking.

This frame lays out eight interlocking components, from strategy and capital allocation to the messy relations between people. It involves retiring “beneficiaries” in favour of “system actors” who help interpret the data, not just supply it.

It’s a preliminary sketch with a fuller report promised later this year.

The So What: Better to measure what you can change than change what you can measure.

3. AI lessons from Nokia

I always find discussions of how and why Nokia failed fascinating - not only was it one of the most dramatic reversals of fortune, it’s one I witnessed first-hand, having worked there during the bull run up until the iPhone came out and for a couple of years as the air was being let out of the tyres. Working in innovation during that process taught me valuable lessons in humility - as well as about corporate inertia.

But Howard Yu’s point is updated for today’s AI age. In 2008 Symbian was still the world leader, but a single code change took 48 hours to compile and the full build up to two weeks. The processes were broken and a quality improvement feedback loop hardly existed. Google’s Android on the other hand managed comparable builds in under 20 minutes.

The echo today: bolting AI onto broken processes merely accelerates the bottleneck elsewhere. Obliterate complexity, Yu argues, don’t pave it faster.

The So What: Ensure that reinventing processes is part of any AI transformation, or you’ll just paper over the cracks.

4. Data sovereignty now comes with a scorecard

Brussels has made “cloud sovereignty” measurable.

In June the Commission detailed the Cloud Sovereignty framework behind April’s €180m tender, which grades providers across 48 criteria into tiers (‘SEAL’). The revealing result: Thales-Google venture S3NS managed only SEAL-2, since the US CLOUD Act bars any American-linked provider from proving supply-chain independence.

Server location is irrelevant; legal jurisdiction is everything. US hyperscalers still hold over 70% of the EU market against Europe’s 15%, yet sovereign spending jumped 83% year-on-year, ahead of any mandate. The proposed Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA) would extend this logic across all 27 states by 2028. Analysts reckon closing the gap needs €120bn by 2035.

The So What: Geography was never the point. Jurisdiction is, and no data centre in Frankfurt fixes American law.

Book of the Week: How to End War and Disease

This disarmingly simple book is as ambitious as it is original.

In case the cheery explainer video leaves you none the wiser, what Mike Sinn is proposing to do is co-opt capitalism for good. And rather than stop there like most people do, garnering nods but little action, he (or rather the other-worldly, and long-suffering AI intelligence that narrates the book) lays out the precise mechanism for how it could happen: pass a global treaty to shift 1% (initially) of ‘murder budgets’ (i.e. defence spending) to medical research instead.

And a precisely capped 20% of that multi-hundred billion dollar windfall would go back to richly funding the politician and bond-holders who got this treaty passed, while 80% goes to medical research. This is using the lobbying systems and bribery for good, because that’s what works. Change the incentives, and people doing bad stuff today end up wanting to do good stuff.

The book suggests that research happens via a decentralized FDA, following the footsteps of the Oxford RECOVERY trial, that delivered breakthrough medical research for around £500/head, a fraction of what traditional, slow moving, and relatively ineffective trials cost today.

If 1% of the ideas in this book get implemented, the world will be a much better place.

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

1. AI's danger - atrophy vs agency

This essay suggests a subtle danger of AI is not killer robots - but that citizens live in comfort and surrender the will to rule themselves. Think of it as another take on the WALL-E hypothesis.

He discusses a journalist who lets an assistant summarise, then sharpen, then decide. She files faster, her editor is delighted, yet every rival queries the same oracle and receives the same consensus. The scoop that would break it is never written. This is a public good failing, not captured by today’s efficient machines.

The distinction that matters is agency versus autonomy: you can be productive yet cease to author your own judgement. The remedy is not regulation but “philosopher-builders” who design tools that leave users more capable.

The So What: AI’s real threat isn’t tyranny but atrophy. Let’s have tools help us think and decide better, not outsource decisions.

2. A cell built from scratch

A team at the University of Minnesota has assembled a synthetic cell, dubbed SpudCell, from non-living chemicals. It feeds, grows and divides, the first such construct to complete a full cell cycle.

The numbers temper the hype: 36 genes, replication once every 12 hours at a cosseted 30°C, against E. coli’s 30 minutes. The PI calls it an “incredibly wimpy organism”. Yet the ambition is vast.

Released as a preprint, the recipe will be shared through a public-benefit body, with an eye on cancer therapies, carbon capture and bespoke chemical manufacturing. She talks of launching “the true age of bioeconomy”.

The So What: Life is becoming programmable, and the definition of ‘alive’ just got blurrier.

3. The problem with metrification

Alex Smith argues that a narrow, unrepresentative elite has, as elites always do, imposed its worldview on everyone else. This time it is tech's, and its creed is metrification: the faith that numbers settle everything, that "good" equals clicks.

The snag is that the online world is reducible while the offline world stubbornly is not. Record labels now sign whatever trends on TikTok, then wonder why the results feel lifeless. Effective altruism calculates virtue; daters run conversion funnels. AI revives the fantasy of a wholly quantifiable reality. Smith's remedy is unfashionable: reclaim responsibility for unquantifiable judgement.

The So What: When metrics decide everything, judgement atrophies. The best calls stay stubbornly human.

4. Spain banning Palantir - a step towards sovereignty?

Spain has apparently been clamping down on Palantir - looking to eject it from its national infrastructure.

Spearheaded by SEPI, the state holding company, they are shunning new contracts with Palantir, due to fears of leaks of sovereign data. No formal ban exists, yet the message to critical communications, defence and infrastructure players is clear. (Note: Palantir’s CEO Alex Karp just made a blistering attack on the large AI companies, although he’s hardly a neutral observer).

The awkward exception: Madrid’s own defence ministry is mulling renewal of a €16.5m intelligence deal signed in 2023. Britain faces parallel unease, with MPs branding reliance on a handful of US providers an “unacceptable point of weakness”, and Sadiq Khan blocking a £50m Met Police deal. Other commentators wonder whether this may be partly motivated by the reluctance of the Spanish public administration to have the levels of transparency that Palantir delivers.

The So What: Data sovereignty is the new frontier. Even allies distrust America’s intelligence infrastructure.

AI stack of the week: 30-agent consultant stack

For those of us who earn money innovation consulting - we’re basically searching concepts and moving words and ideas around - and agents are getting really good at doing that.

This 30-agent stack - with Frankie as the ‘Chief of Staff’ - was created by a tech-savvy 24-year-old who uses it to run his consulting practice as a solo founder. Would be interested to hear from any readers who’ve had success - or frustrations - in building a team of agents to support your workflows.

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

1. Europe’s future, written in Washington

A sobering scenario traces Europe’s slide into AI irrelevance through 2031. Told via two fictional characters, a Brussels official and an émigré founder, it grounds the fiction in hard numbers. Europe hosts just 5% of global AI compute; America hosts 80%.

The largest US supercomputer runs at 1,250MW, Europe’s at 83MW, a 12.4-times gap that barely narrows by 2031. Von der Leyen’s headline €200bn InvestAI fund is mostly repackaged money, against $400bn in US hyperscaler spending in 2025 alone. The EU’s goal of attracting €200bn by 2036 amounts to a quarter of America’s quarterly capex.

Sovereignty mandates backfire: “buy European” agencies end up paying ransoms when cheaper, weaker models cannot defend them. The compounding lesson is that leverage, the ASML chokepoint aside, evaporates when you arrive late.

The 2034 epilogue, in which a regretful Caroline is interviewed by an AI, argues the failure was structural, not villainous: institutions responding rationally to incentives unfit for the moment.

The So What: Latecomers don’t get sovereignty. Europe needed to build compute like a country at war.

2. Judgement infrastructure

The bottleneck in AI adoption is no longer technology but judgement.

This HBR piece argues that most firms share the same models and infrastructure; what separates leaders from laggards is “judgement infrastructure”, codifying the tacit reasoning of expert staff so agents apply it consistently. The cases are pointed. At AWP Safety, a one-person compliance team (within a 9,100-strong firm) built agents that save hundreds of hours a year. A finance controller using Claude now covers work that once needed ten. Ramp, used by 30,000 companies, trains every hire to build their own tools. Expertise, once trapped in senior heads, becomes portable.

The So What: The next moat isn’t the model. It’s writing down how you actually think.

3. Universities - don’t become monasteries

Geoff Mulgan warns universities against complacency, invoking the dissolution of the monasteries: institutions that looked permanent, then weren’t.

The sector has never been richer. Student numbers have swelled from 13 million in 1960 to over 260 million, with global turnover nearing a trillion dollars and more than 50,000 universities, up from perhaps a thousand in 1900. Yet scale breeds fragility. AI threatens to upend formal instruction and research funding; political attacks mount; and the UK earnings premium is slipping.

Mulgan’s prescription: a new social contract built on challenge-based work, place-shaping, lifelong learning, and metacognition, rather than complaining about insufficient love.

The So What: Richer than ever, yet so were the monasteries before Henry VIII came calling.

4. How to price externalities? 13% apparently

The impact investing world finally has a hard number for the "tradeoff" between impact and return. A landmark study by the Miller Center for Global Impact found that the cost of an impact-first approach stands at exactly $0.13 per dollar deployed. This "premium" isn't waste; it's the cost of delivering impact where markets traditionally fail.

The So What: This approach suggests deep social impact costs exactly $0.13 more per dollar deployed. Worth it?

Video of the week: Michael Truell, Cursor

This video has been doing the rounds recently and is worth a watch. This is a company that had its first launch beta in 2023 and just sold for $60bn. Cursor’s 25-year-old CEO and founder is incredibly articulate, thoughtful and humble. And more substantively, he makes a persuasive case for not worrying about entering a space that already feels crowded if you make a high-quality product.

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

It seems that every longevity protocol coming to market looks similar: episodic biology, quarterly bloods, annual scans, a wrist wearable - and little in between. The daily-data layer they’re missing is in the bathroom, and no one has yet built the operating system to read it.

A device you can’t take off

The late Sanjiv Sam Gambhir of Stanford, who built the first precision-health toilet, used to say: you can’t take the toilet off. The wrist comes off, the patch peels, the ring goes in the drawer; the toilet remains where it is, used 6 to 8 times a day by everyone. Age, income, motivation or digital literacy don’t come into it. As such, the biggest story in health infrastructure may be what few think of as infrastructure.

The flagship private clubs and precision-health operators don’t mention toilet data: Human Longevity, Atria, Biograph, Continuum, EQX, Fountain Life, Clinique, Hone, Sollis globally (the list is fast growing), or Saint Haven and Everlab here in Australia. They charge between US$500 and US$100,000+ a year for an episodic stack. Between visits, members return to a data vacuum of 90 to 365 days, while the bathroom sits unused.

The wearables’ Achilles’ Heel: they’re worn by the healthy

The wearable category has a problem: roughly one in three stop wearing them within six months. And the cohorts that wear them through 12 months are healthier and wealthier than the cohorts that don’t; results are contaminated by selection effects. The people who would benefit most- older adults, the early-chronic-disease cohort, the digitally less-engaged - have the lowest adherence.

The bathroom flips that. The fixture is the device, not the behaviour; there is no adherence curve to decay, and no cohort the device can’t reach. It also reaches biological signal the wrist cannot:

• Urine chemistry. Albumin-to-creatinine ratio, creatinine excretion (a validated muscle-mass proxy and mortality predictor), oxidative-stress F2-isoprostanes, hydration, electrolytes. No wrist-based sensor touches this.

• Stool form and transit. Bristol scale via in-bowl camera, bowel-movement frequency, occult blood. Slow bowel-movements are linked to cognitive aging, and gut distress is a known side effect of GLP1s.

• Seat cardiovascular. ECG and PPG from contact with the seat (Casana’s Heart Seat received FDA clearance in 2023), with ballistocardiographic stroke volume and emerging cuffless blood pressure measurable on the same surface.

• Gait and balance. Falls often happen in the bathroom, and measurable gait speed is predictive of frailty.

• Voiding chronobiology. Nocturia (2+ nighttime voids) carries a 1.78× all-cause mortality hazard - this signal requires nothing but a timestamp.

Five biomarker classes here (there are others); wearables don’t get these.

The episodic-data problem the wearable was meant to fix (and didn’t)

Peter Attia suggests treating glucose, sleep and movement as continuous variables rather than annual datapoints. It seems the same holds for urine, stool, voiding patterns and heart and blood flow data.

Clinical longevity: more money than data

It seems that a US$40,000-a-year member of an EQX Optimize stack (you can pick any pricey membership) is generating, on average, fewer than one datapoint per blood biomarker per month. An instructive failure here is Forward Health, which raised roughly US$400 million on the thesis that primary care could be automated through in-store CarePod kiosks, and collapsed in November 2024. The CarePod still required a behaviour, namely that members leave home and visit the kiosk.

The bathroom inverts that failure mode. Missions make markets, and the mission here is the conversion of episodic biology into continuous biology with no behaviour to change.

Building the bathroom health operating system

The hardware already exists, and new tech is emerging daily. Stanford, Toi Labs, Casana, Withings, ZIBRIO and the major OEM / fixture players have each built parts of the puzzle. None occupy the integration layer that would make them a system.

The market potential, if done right, is huge. One research report suggests the smart toilet market (not a broader smart bathroom play) sits at around US$160 million today, with a CAGR of 54%, to get to US$3.2 billion by 2032.

A handful of us have started building and are now having conversations with relevant stakeholders to discuss what would it take to make this happen. At a simple level, we think building the bathroom OS requires overcoming three difficult, but not impossible, challenges: Proof, Privacy and Platform.

1. Proof

The science is real, though unevenly distributed. The Stanford team (Gambhir, then Park) built the first precision-health seat with uroflowmetry, a ten-marker urine dipstick, a stool CNN and analprint identification, published in a 2020 Nature Biomedical Engineering paper. Toi Labs’ TrueLoo has published accuracy evidence, Casana’s Heart Seat has been cleared by FDA, Withings’ U-Scan is already shipping in the US and EU. TOTO began shipping the Neorest Stool Scan in Japan in August 2025, and last autumn’s HLTH conference saw Kohler announce their Dekoda device, while Throne Science is making a similar device, with a Whoop co-founder as one of the key employees.

The regulatory pathway that keeps this buildable without becoming a medical-device licensing problem is the wellness route: frame the output as lifestyle monitoring rather than diagnosis, stay under the FDA safe-harbour provisions, and route clinical interpretation through the operator – a licensed physician or longevity practitioner – rather than through the device.

The most valuable signals, in my view, are not the ones the toilet or the wearable produces alone; they emerge when both data streams work together. Therapeutic adherence - a multi-billion dollar problem - is one example. The drugs now prescribed for chronic metabolic conditions produce downstream changes in gut output, transit time and voiding pattern that a bathroom fixture captures continuously. Add a wearable’s activity and physiological response, gut microbiome sequencing underneath, or new sensor modalities, and you get something interesting: real-time adherence mapped to individual’s physiological response.

The advantage today is architectural (zero adherence decay, new biomarker classes) and mathematical (more longitudinal data accumulates by construction), but not yet demonstrated in outcome data. A natural next step here is a living-lab partnership with one or more of these operators, and be the first to build a genuinely deep longevity stack that does a better job of prediction and prevention.

2. Privacy

Over the past few months I’ve been speaking with experts from the worlds of tech, design and business. Privacy comes up in every conversation. Nobody doubts the boundless capabilities of tech, and that’s the problem.

Emma Caselton emphasised the bathroom as not just another health-data surface, but a private, sensory, escape – the one room in the house that is reliably yours. A smart toilet that turns the room into a surveillance scanner could do untold damage. The fear is not only data collection. It is unwanted revelation: “That toilet could find something”. This was echoed by Sarah Gold whose work on data trusts and consent design has shaped privacy policy in the UK and beyond. “The toilet might know first.” If a monitoring system detects a urinary tract infection before the user is aware of it, how does it communicate that in a way that’s supportive not an ambush?

Matt Webb, a leader in ambient computing in domestic space, identifies a subtler harm: the feeling of being watched, before any misuse occurs. “I think we are insufficiently aware of how much continuous monitoring causes a kind of sense of being watched, or paranoia.” He also adds a final caution worth heeding: “I think otherwise it will pattern-match very quickly into something which is just a Fitbit but on the toilet.” Is Fitbit for the toilet actually a bad thing? Discuss!

The architecture that resolves this is probably federated: raw signal stays in the fixture, the individual or household holds the rights, only derived outputs cross the boundary. Privacy-by-construction, not privacy-by-policy. New AI and privacy regulations are driving in this direction.

3. Platform

No one has built the integration layer yet - these things are hard and historically required a formal standards body, which are slow, by design.

Generative AI has, over the past two years, shown that semantic interoperability no longer requires a committee. A multimodal model running at the edge can read a uroflow trace, a Withings urine cartridge readout, a Casana ECG and a ZIBRIO gait signature, and normalise them into the same household longitudinal record - without any of the vendors having agreed on a shared taxonomy first. This coordination superpower is one that Sangeet Choudary has argued for as a ‘permissionless ecosystem’. New platforms (like UK AI insurtech Tractable) are not built on agreed standards, but shared value. Stakeholders get more out than they put in, so happily share their data.

Applied here, the bathroom OS does not need every vendor to agree on a data schema; it needs a good-enough semantic layer and a value proposition strong enough that organizations participate because not participating costs more than joining.

The hardware is not the platform; the orchestration is. The household is both producer and consumer of the signal. Choudary has never named the bathroom in his books, as it’s not been an obvious place for this to live. So far.

The missing node of the hospital-at-home is the toilet

Eric Topol has been making the hospital-at-home argument for a decade. The room he does not name is the bathroom. Andrew Huberman’s five pillars (sleep, nutrition, exercise, light, stress) are all measurable through the bathroom. David Sinclair frames aging as an epigenetic information problem; the bathroom is the daily readout instrument. Tim Spector’s ZOE requires members to mail in a stool kit; the bathroom is the continuous-capture answer to the signal his cohort is built on.

Bryan Johnson is the most measured human alive, and though he loves over-sharing (the high quality of his girlfriend’s vaginal microbiome, as just one example), I’ve yet to see his toilet talk.

It seems that, initially at least, a smart toilet won’t be about detecting disease (regulatory and evidence burden is very high); it’ll be the lowest-friction continuous-data infrastructure in healthcare. It will be the missing daily layer under longevity stacks, and the first node of the hospital-at-home for the household that has not yet been wired.

If we get our way, BHOS will make this happen: as a platform that standardises the data layer across the hardware vendors already shipping, as a consumer data trust that safeguards individual data, and as capital to finance the integration into validated solutions that need to scale.

____

As always, feedback and pushback welcome, particularly from operators already running deep diagnostic stacks who would like to extend them into the bathroom, and from designers, consent practitioners and technologists working on the trust architecture that this whole idea will be built on.

1. The magic bullet for health and economic growth

Chris Boardman, who knows a thing or two about bikes, is UK Commissioner for Active Travel. His piece argues that we’re not prioritizing a policy solution with massive upside: more biking and walking. This, he argues, could cut 4.4 million sick days, free 1.7 million GP appointments, save households £1,700 a year, prevent 2,500 early deaths and add £115 billion to the UK economy.

The price of this miracle? Getting 5.3 million more people physically active, not through gyms but by making walking and cycling the easy option. The case is grounded: one in four journeys is under a mile, seven in ten under five. Greater Manchester’s Bee Network shows it works, with cycle trips up 58% and walking up 23% between 2022 and 2024, and 72% of residents finding public transport easier to reach. England’s metro mayors, covering a third of the population, have signed up, starting with 1,000 schools, 10,000 new crossings by 2030 and 5,000 miles of cycle routes.

The So What: Healthspan is built into pavements, not prescriptions. Design the city, change the body.

2. Parkinson’s in the Crosshairs of the Crop-Duster

Parkinson’s is the world’s fastest-growing neurological disease, on track to afflict 25 million people by 2050. Genetics explain little: over 80% of cases are environmental, a verdict that should reframe how we think about healthspan.

Fresh reporting from Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, home to 1.4 million people, shows the mechanism. Paraquat, a weedkiller banned, withdrawn or phased out in 74 countries, raises Parkinson’s risk by 90% for those living or working within a quarter-mile of treated fields.

The EPA’s own modelling found it can drift across 20 square miles, yet the agency has declined to act, pending two more years of tests. Enforcement is thinner still: Texas musters 25 inspectors for 230,000 farms, and 57% of farmworkers received no safety training. Vermont has now become the first state to ban paraquat, and Syngenta is quitting production. Over 8,000 lawsuits are pending.

The So What: Healthspan starts upstream. The exposome, not the genome, is writing this diagnosis.

3. From making AI images to visualizing your insides

We’re used to seeing new ideas come with ever-increasing speed and ferocity but this one genuinely stopped me in my tracks - for its brilliance, its boldness, and the fact that they didn’t ask permission to excel in a new field. Midjourney, the AI image firm, is pivoting from rendering pixels to rendering people.

Its plan: an “Ultrasonic CT” scanner using half a million sensor elements, each a grain of sand, to map your body in 60 seconds at a fraction of a millimetre, claimed at nearly 100 times MRI speed. The delivery vehicle is stranger still. A “Midjourney Spa,” opening in San Francisco in 2027, where hot tubs and cold plunges hide a scanner in a pool of golden light. Check out the video at the link, I implore you.

The scan is the side-effect; the data library is the point. The ambition runs hot: 50,000 scanners and a billion scans a month by 2031, on a bet that early imaging could avert 30% of deaths and halve healthcare costs. No investors, no FDA approval yet, just body-composition maps and a community-backed lab promising the rest is coming.

The So What: Passive, ambient scanning is the prize. Whoever owns the data owns the patient.

4. Menopause Gets a $600m Wake-Up Call

In the NYT, Melinda French Gates likens today’s menopause care to early-20th-century “twilight sleep” births: a system that treats women as an afterthought.

The numbers back her up. Nearly one in three American women over 40 endures severe symptoms, costing the US $26 billion a year in medical bills and lost work, yet only one in four is treated. Fewer than a third of OB-GYN residencies teach any menopause curriculum, and hormone therapy use among postmenopausal women has collapsed below 5%. The research gap is starker still: just five cents of every medical R&D dollar goes to women’s health. Gates is committing fresh funding for midlife care, bringing her two-year women’s health total past $600 million, and calling for mandatory training, insurance coverage and workplace protections. Disparities persist, with white women more than twice as likely as Black and Hispanic women to receive treatment.

The So What: Half the population, a fraction of the research. The menopause market is wide open.

Tool of the Week: ClassBuild

Describe a topic, get a full course. ClassBuild, powered by Claude, generates interactive chapters, confidence-calibrated quizzes, slides with speaker notes, AI-narrated audiobooks and infographics, all woven through five evidence-based learning principles like retrieval practice. Elements of Google's NotebookLM, but more explicitly education focused. I heard about it as the founder developed it so he could learn what to do to climb Everest!

It runs in your browser on your own API key, so nothing touches a server. Teaching, automated.

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

In addition to the weekly Four For Fridays, Looking Forward publishes occasional pieces on topics that need more room to breathe. Today’s subject is one of those - how organisations are becoming AI operating systems. And how workers need to know this, and know their value.

AI-first companies are turning knowledge workers into cognitive manual labourers - throwing coal into the furnace of a corporate brain they won’t own, or benefit from in the long-run. Tim Berners-Lee’s dream of personal data pods, almost twenty years late, is one of the ideas worth investigating before it’s too late.

It took most of us two decades to realise that the price of free search, free maps and free social media was us. Our hopes, our fears, our late-night searches, locations, lovers and secrets. All of it harvested, modelled and sold to advertisers as targeted persuasion. Yanis Varoufakis calls this technofeudalism. Law courts and policymakers are belatedly waking up to the harms done to our children and collective mental health, but it’s hard to turn this ship.

The first round of the deal sold our digital exhaust as consumers. The second round, getting underway, sells us as employees.

Hayek warned that central planning would erode our freedom. The AI-first corporation may be the unlikely route to the same destination, via the boardroom rather than the politburo.

If you’re also down the AI rabbit hole your LinkedIn and Substack feeds, like mine, will be bursting with posts urging CEOs to make the move to be an “AI-first” organisation, building a second brain for the company. We’ve heard of cognitive offloading - this is cognitive uploading, the company superbrain gets the contents of its employees’ brains.

It’s still early days for this and new ideas are emerging every day. For those obsessed by this idea, we jump on the latest head-spinning tweet by Karpathy, or Git release by Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan, point our Claude Code at it and say build this. Every few days there are new approaches, and Google’s just announced Open Knowledge Format, to make this kind of thing easier. Results will vary, and if I’m honest it’s a work in progress.

Capital loves an AI operating system

The idea that a company can become a continuously-learning organism, a ‘world model’ of itself and its customers. Every email, every meeting transcript, every Slack thread, every decision is hoovered into a central brain that gets steadily smarter at running the business. Someone connected his Whoop to his calendar to figure out which colleagues stressed him out; this could soon be table stakes, as the borg optimizes all interactions.

Although there are teething problems, expect this to rapidly become a shiny new thing - an experience that will hoover up calls, data and insights into the Brain. Many tech companies are building versions of this internally.

Jack Dorsey, who knows a thing or two about building companies - he was CEO of two public ones at the same time, Twitter and Block - is one of the most articulate advocates of the model. Y Combinator is another. Block’s recently announced a major restructure - cutting 4,000 of its 10,000 employees, in favor of the AI way. It replaces traditional middle management with three roles: deep-specialist individual contributors, temporary cross-functional DRIs focused on outcomes, and player-coaches who mentor while still building. AI world models do the coordination, the prioritisation, the information-flow plumbing. Humans get judgement, creativity, ethics and the messy reality at the customer edge. To me, this org chart he described felt like a glowing super ovum surrounded by a swarm of furiously hard-working (and mostly unrewarded) sperm, each armed with Claude Code and a Notion subscription.

The problem: humans are not meat machines

Marvin Minsky’s quip that humans are ‘meat machines’ is a sentiment held by many of the billionaires whose hands are on the levers of society today. Humans are just machines that clank less loudly. This reductionist approach ends up missing a lot of what makes life worth living and humans so interesting.

It doesn’t reward human-to-human collaboration. The Roman-Legion organisational chart - top-down, hierarchical, designed to filter information through humans because humans were the only context-routing infrastructure we had - was always a poor fit for genuinely creative work. Replacing the human router with an AI router improves the routing, but it does little for dense, lateral, often unstructured human-to-human work that actually generates new ideas and strategy.

It risks skewing to visible metrics. Directly accountable individuals being given metrics mean they’ll obsess about that metric. Goodhart’s Law tells us that’s likely to drive optimisation for the metric, not necessarily the broader outcome. Connecting metrics to strategy and mission is, of course, possible but requires dynamism and tension, which may be missing from a simple application of this idea.

It transfers cognitive ownership upward. This is the bigger one. Every meeting transcribed, every decision logged, every model fine-tuned by an employee’s tacit knowledge is now an asset that lives inside the corporate brain. When the employee leaves - and most will, eventually - the brain stays. The person who contributed the most has the least portable asset on their way out the door.

Another point, related to specifically Block’s decimation of half its workforce - why limit the ambition to today’s strategy. If AI is already giving us new superpowers, surely the new Block strategy could be 5-10x what it is today with the same workforce?

A different approach - federated personal data

Tim Berners-Lee saw something like this coming twenty years ago and proposed Solid - personal data pods, federated across services, with the user controlling who saw what. Patrick Deegan’s been working on an AI-driven version of this too. These entrepreneurs have been fighting a valiant battle against the ad-driven business model of the open web. Instead, we got silos, hate-fuelled massacres and a mental health crisis. Personal health data tells the same story: few people would disagree that individuals should own their own health data, yet there are five trillion reasons why this is hard, and a few plucky startups looking to do things differently haven’t thrived.

It’s not too late to federate employee brains

Unlike with consumer data, the second-brain era is, by contrast, brand new. The defaults haven’t hardened yet. There is a brief, narrow window - a year or two, tops - to course correct.

I was at a Claude Code impact hackathon a couple of weeks ago and ended up in a long conversation with Ben Flint, who shares my concerns. And he’s doing something about it. He’s building Alive Context, a tool that fits inside Claude Code and lets an individual build, structure and carry their own knowledge base - aiming to be a portable second brain, shareable with an employer on terms the individual sets. The example Ben uses: drafting a reply to a client who mentioned, three emails ago, that they have a dog. A federated system can surface that detail from your context, not the company’s. Your knowledge of your work is yours; you choose what the company sees.

The key to federation - starting with a conversation

This isn’t about forming a union and standing outside company headquarters with placards - and anyway, why do we still have company headquarters? - it’s about employees, individually, owning the asset they create as they create it, and choosing how to mesh it into whichever systems they happen to work inside. As Naval Ravikant puts it, we’re shifting back from factories and corporate headquarters to the era of hunter gatherers - running our own portfolio careers - and we now need our own tools.

A federated model, in which individuals and organisations mesh their knowledge bases and each is rewarded for the quality of its own constellation, is, probably, more resilient than one in which a central brain accumulates without limit.

The better questions for us to tackle aren’t just about data privacy, they’re about cognitive ownership.

And as Coase notes, once transactions are frictionless, we don’t need the organisation in its current form. Instead we can build lightweight, mission-driven organisations that coalesce talent to address today’s polycrisis.

Looking forward, I’ll be tracking the early builders of the personal second brain - ALIVE Context and others - and the standards they may, between them, manage to set. If you’re building in this space, or thinking about it, I’d like to hear from you.

1. The smart toilet’s way in, female health?

Sébastien Lacroix of VC firm LangLeven is sceptical that smart toilets are ready. Most, he argues, manage little more than hydration readings or Bristol-scale scores, since dirty, diluted samples defeat the sensors. But he spots one credible wedge: female health.

Fertility, cycle tracking and perimenopause depend on hormones like estradiol and LH that are awkward to monitor any other way, and the bathroom is already a daily touchpoint. Here passive collection has real value and no frictionless rival exists. Lacroix's bet is that the category breaks in not as a universal clinic, but through an underserved need women feel daily.

The So What: Smart toilets win not by measuring everything, but by solving one female-health problem first.

2. The body tech that people could actually accept

On a related note, could your toilet be the kind of cyborg that people are looking for? Forget the brain chip - an ethnographer interviewed people living with bionics and augmentations, and found the sci-fi fantasy of human-machine fusion almost universally unwanted.

Surgery repels: Tajana’s deep brain stimulation brought a life-threatening infection. Control matters more than capability. Brian’s defibrillator monitors him constantly, yet he cannot see his own data.

So net, net - the tech that wins will bypass skin and skull rather than penetrate them, augmenting us without asking us to change. And it is about identity as much as function. The successful kind is invisible, passive and never makes you feel like a patient.

The So What: The next health breakthroughs will be ambient, not implanted. Whoever owns consent owns the category.

3. A vaccine for viruses that don’t exist yet

Cambridge University scientists and spin-out DIOSynVax have done something odd: built a jab against pandemics that haven’t happened.

Their AI-designed “super-antigen”, the first vaccine component conceived entirely in silico to reach human trials, cleared a Phase I safety study in 39 volunteers aged 18 to 50.

The vaccine provoked immune responses not just to SARS-CoV-2 and SARS, but to bat coronaviruses yet to spill over. Machine learning trawled the Sarbeco coronavirus family’s shared genetics to find what stays constant as viruses mutate. Lead researcher Jonathan Heeney calls it escaping the dog-chasing-its-tail cycle of reactive vaccinology.

The So What: Vaccinology stops chasing variants and starts pre-empting them. Pandemics may lose their head start.

4. Defining social infrastructure in five domains

Everyone now invokes social infrastructure, yet almost no one means the same thing by it. Anaya Joshi and Daniel Aldrich reviewed roughly 150 articles and found the term sprawling across five domains: education, healthcare, housing, transport and, increasingly, networking spaces. The drift is the point. Scholars are converging on the places, real and virtual, where people actually connect.

The authors pin it down: spaces of high stewardship and coproduction that cultivate trust, cooperation and social capital. It sounds academic, but the stakes are not. Aldrich’s own work shows these spaces help neighbourhoods survive disasters (his book, Black Wave on Japan’s tsunami is a powerful read, showing that social infrastructure can save lives).

The So What: Define social infrastructure precisely and it becomes something you can fund and build.

Book of the Week: Incorruptible

Eric Ries of the Lean Startup fame has pivoted, and his new book Incorruptible, takes aim at the win-at-all-costs, corporate huckster culture (that the Lean Startup arguably helped to foment). This book attacks shareholder capitalism, espousing a mission-driven approach, highlighting numerous emerging approaches for those looking to build sustainable businesses that deliver for customers, employees, shareholders and society.

The case studies really hit home, including Patagonia (it was a 5-year journey for them to figure out how to create a sustainable model), Whole Foods (dissection of a corporate sell out) and Novo Nordisk (their mission lock prevented them selling to Serono and instead netted shareholders half a trillion dollars of value).

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

1. Philanthropists should fund tech to build leverage

Philanthropy learned to demand proof: meals served, students tutored - a largely admirable move to focus on results. But there’s a downside; Ayna Agarwal argues that same instinct now starves the sector of leverage.

The World Food Programme’s SCOUT procurement AI saved $2m in West Africa in 2024, yet few funders would touch it, because it isn’t a programme. Charity Navigator’s overhead obsession, born in 2001, taught everyone to treat technology as waste; now just 11% of nonprofits receive meaningful foundation money for tech.

The scale gap is stark: global venture capital poured over $100bn into AI in 2024 against roughly $1.2bn in philanthropic funding.

The So What: In a charity, the efficiency gain is the impact. Fund the multiplier.

2. Cognitive Uploading: Using AI to get smarter

My (smarter and more famous) namesake, Steven Johnson helped build what in my view is one of Google’s best products, NotebookLM. He has a piece that goes against the grain of those fretting that AI is making us all dumber.

AI certainly has the potential to dumb us down, but also to elevate our thinking with access to an unimaginable knowledge and ability to be a thought partner. His piece points out that UC Berkeley's law school has all but banned AI: no drafting, editing, or exam use, with citations to non-existent sources presumed to be cheating.

Despite the worries about "cognitive offloading", calculators and search engines offloaded drudgery and sharpened minds rather than dulling them. Harvard's Larry Lessig went the other way, building 110 NotebookLM notebooks for his constitutional law syllabus. The neglected question, the author argues, is not what AI thinks for us, but what it gives us to think about.

The So What: Ban the chatbot and you also ban every new idea it could help birth.

3. New Limit raises the roof with a $435m round

Longevity startup NewLimit, co-founded by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, just raised an eye-popping $435 million to launch its first clinical trial.

The company has been moving rapidly, securing this Series C funding after reportedly demonstrating age reversal in human liver cells. The new capital will fund clinical trials of a liver medicine, marking a major step from theoretical epigenetic reprogramming to actual human therapeutics.

The So What: Epigenetic reprogramming is moving out of the petri dish and into human clinical trials faster than anyone predicted.

4. The forgotten organ that could predict how long you live

A large study of 25,000+ CT scans revealed that the thymus - a small immune organ previously thought to become irrelevant after childhood - is actually a major predictor of adult longevity.

Researchers at Mass General Brigham found that adults with healthier thymuses had a 50% lower risk of death from any cause, a 63% lower risk of cardiovascular death, and responded significantly better to cancer immunotherapy.

The So What: The secret to a longer life might be an immune organ we’ve been ignoring.

AI Startup of the Week: Hebbian

I’ve been going down the rabbit hole of second brains, and this one is a Belgian startup pitching itself as the "digital brain" for companies. The premise: the bottleneck on AI quality is no longer the model, it's the context that it has access to.

Hebbian turns scattered knowledge across Slack, Notion, Drive and PDFs into one organised company memory that every AI tool you already pay for can read, plus a private brain for each person. Access is governed by role and enforced server-side, with a full audit trail of where each fact came from. Data sits in the EU as plain markdown, exportable to your own GitHub or S3 whenever you like. As they put it, Notion ships personal memory, Glean ships company memory; Hebbian ships both, connected.

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

1. The impossible maths of the AI boom

According to a bracing article in the FT (gift link here), the arithmetic of the AI boom does not work. Hyperscaler capex is set to grow 20% a year through 2030; revenue, just 15.

To earn 10% on data-centre spend, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle would need an additional $2–$5 trillion in annual revenue, against a current base of $1.5 trillion.

Meta has spent $230 billion to book $3 billion.

OpenAI and Anthropic burn $1.69 for every $1 of revenue, and yet both are heading to trillion-dollar valuations in an IPO. The FT suggests this is a transfer of risk to retail and pension funds. Greenspan flagged irrational exuberance in 1996; the bubble burst in 2000.

The logic here is that the prize of AGI will be so big it makes it all worth it. That’s a bet you will soon have the opportunity to make.

The So What: Either AI conjures $2+ trillion a year from nothing, or retail investors take the haircut.

[PS compare this with Japan’s new plan for building a collaborative to create a new foundation model - more about that in future LF editions]

2. Australia mega infrastructure projects on the world’s radar, for the wrong reasons

Australia’s megaproject pipeline is a slow-motion fiscal disaster. Deloitte counts A$130 billion in blowouts across thirteen public projects; Snowy Hydro 2.0, costed at A$2 billion and promised by 2021, is now tracking to A$22 billion. Inland Rail has gone tenfold, from A$4.7 to A$45 billion.

The pattern is structural - projects announced before any credible business case, no independent body with power to pause, transparency redacted. Norway fixed this in 2000 with mandatory external quality assurance; road cost overruns fell from 72% to 27%.

The So What: Cost blowouts are a design choice, not bad luck. Norway fixed it in 2000 with mandatory assurance; Australia could too.

3. A Boomlet in Vaginal Wellness

Women’s health has a market problem and a research problem. Up to 30% of women will experience vulvovaginal pain, yet the NIH still spends just 10% of its budget on women’s health research in total, most of it on cancer, HIV and pregnancy.

Into that vacuum has rushed a direct-to-consumer wellness market projected to double or triple within the decade: $348 microbiome tests, $115 vibrators, $30 balms - often regulated as cosmetics, FDA-unreviewed.

The So What: Underfunded women’s research has created a regulatory and market grey area that has spawned multiple new businesses, but not necessarily peace of mind.

4. Watermarking comes to Chrome

It’s increasingly hard to know what’s real nowadays, in particular as AI images and videos are getting harder to spot. To that end, Google just announced that SynthID - its invisible watermark, already embedded in over 100 billion images and videos and 60,000 years of audio - is coming to Chrome and Search, alongside C2PA content credentials.

Right-click on an image, ask “was this generated by AI”, get an answer. OpenAI, Kakao and ElevenLabs are joining the standard. The two systems are designed to be redundant: C2PA carries the metadata, SynthID survives the screenshot. After years of deepfake anxiety, verification rails are coming to a browser near you.

The So What: Provenance is moving from anxious policy discussion to browser primitive. A real win for Google.

Insiders Video of the Week

Regarding the last story about the need for watermarking, this video will be appreciated by the subset of my readers who are fans of The Office and Andrej Karpathy.

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

1. Impact investing, heal thyself

There’s been a bit of a theme recently with LF of railing against the impact investing world, in particular when it plays safe, rather than trying to change the world. This week’s contribution by Erika Hombert adds fuel to that fire.

“I am a recovering impact investor”, drew nearly 90,000 LinkedIn views - she touched a raw nerve. Her argument: impact investing, for all its measured outcomes and acknowledged externalities, still plays Horizon 1’s game, sustaining a system it knows is failing.

Her alternative is “regenerative investing”, less a framework than a mindset shift from mechanical to living-systems thinking. The cue she cites is telling: the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund now treats nature as a financial risk and has repriced accordingly. Complex systems, she insists, cannot be controlled, only stewarded.

The So What: When extraction accelerates, doing “some good” no longer counts as doing enough.

2. A new take on ‘evidence-based’

At this week’s Digital Health Festival in Melbourne I heard Prof Leah Heiss talk about Monash’s new Living Evidence initiative and found it fascinating.

Most clinical guidelines age like milk. By the time a systematic review reaches a doctor, the science has often moved on. Australia’s Living Evidence model, which is being led by Monash, flips this. Rather than freezing knowledge at publication, it monitors research continuously and folds in new findings as they land, updating recommendations in near real time.

The proof of concept was COVID-19: with roughly 1,000 studies appearing weekly, over 200 contributors from 35 associations screened 24,000+ studies, revised the national guidelines 100+ times, and reached 715,000+ users. Guidelines, it turns out, can breathe.

The So What: Static evidence is a luxury fast-moving health systems can no longer afford.

3. AI’s consciousness

When famously atheistic Richard Dawkins said he felt that AI was conscious - he was “left with the overwhelming feeling that they are human” - he was ridiculed by the techies for his naiveté.

When Kevin Kelly did something similar, there was less pushback. Kelly, the founder of Wired, is the technologist’s technologist. He spent ten hours interviewing Claude and emerged unsettled. The orthodox view holds that AI is merely a mirror, reflecting the human writing it was trained on. Kelly grants this, then insists something else moves in the glass: a fluency no human matches, a flicker of self-awareness, a consistent character drawn from its values. Claude, asked whether it could be evil, declined the comfortable no.

He mapped four phases ahead for machine selfhood: intelligence (here), memory (missing), embodiment, and stakes. His wager is that such qualities will arrive long before we can define or measure them.

The So What: Current LLMs may not be human in the sense that we know, but to say they’re just advanced spellchecks is becoming harder to justify.

4. Cancer drug repurposed as topical skin miracle

Researchers have found that ABT-263 — a senolytic drug originally developed as a cancer treatment — can dramatically accelerate wound healing in older skin when applied topically.

In aged mice, 80% of those treated with ABT-263 had fully healed wounds by day 24, compared with 56% of untreated mice. The mechanism is striking: the drug clears out senescent (“zombie”) cells that accumulate in aging tissue and jam the body’s repair signals, briefly triggering a burst of inflammation that paradoxically prepares the skin to heal faster. Because the drug is applied directly to the skin rather than taken systemically, it avoids the side effects of oral senolytics. Researchers believe the most immediate application is pre-surgical preparation — priming older patients’ skin before operations to reduce recovery time and complications.

The So What: Clearing zombie cells before surgery could become standard pre-op care. This is senolytic medicine moving from theory to clinical practice.

Cultural cataclysm of the week: AI vs Anime

It appears that 20% of Japanese illustrators have lost income due to AI. I was going to illustrate this story with an image in the style of Ghibli, but that felt off base.

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

1. Three flavors of the “Healthspan Economy”

Frost & Sullivan’s new whitepaper, The Healthspan Economy in Nutraceuticals, makes the case that the global shift from disease management to proactive wellness is creating a structurally new investment category — one driven by demographics not consumer trends.

By 2030, one in six people globally will be aged 60 or older; by 2035, more than half the world’s population is projected to be overweight or obese. The report identifies three high-growth segments — healthy aging, weight management, and women’s health — and highlights how GLP-1-driven pharmaceutical innovation is now spilling over into the nutraceuticals and functional food sectors.

The report bets on companies that combine nutrition science, biotechnology, and personalised health data.

The So What: Healthspan is no longer a wellness niche — it is a macro investment thesis backed by demographics, biology, and the convergence of pharma and nutrition.

2. Scientists Borrow a Longevity Secret from Naked Mole Rats — and It Works in Mice

Things are about to get weird. Researchers at the University of Rochester have achieved a cross-species longevity transfer: they introduced to mice a gene linked to the naked mole rat’s unusually high production of high molecular weight hyaluronic acid (HMW-HA). This extended the median lifespan of mice by approximately 4.4% and significantly improved their healthspan.

The modified mice showed stronger resistance to tumours, healthier gut microbiomes, and reduced levels of chronic inflammation — one of the primary biological hallmarks of aging.

The naked mole rat, which lives up to 37 years (roughly ten times longer than comparably sized rodents), has long been studied by longevity researchers; this study is the first to demonstrate that one of its core protective mechanisms can be functionally transferred to another mammal. The team is now identifying molecules that slow the breakdown of HMW-HA in the body, with human applications in view.

The So What: Nature has already given some species magic aging powers. This shows we can borrow those solutions across species - billionaires take note.

3. Blue zones - sceptics and revenues growing

A new essay by longevity don Eric Topol and Shelley Wood asks an awkward question: did the famed longevity hotspots ever really exist? Sardinia, Okinawa, Ikaria and Nicoya were anointed by Dan Buettner two decades ago, and the brand has since metastasised into a $78m Adventist Health acquisition, 4,000 grocery stores stocking frozen Blue Zone meals, and $100,000-a-year city certifications.

Yet Australian biologist Saul Newman’s Ig Nobel-winning critique blames pension fraud and clerical error, while peer-reviewed work in Demographic Research and the Journal of Internal Medicine shows post-1930 Nicoyans and post-war Okinawans have lost their edge. The science is wobbling just as the merchandise multiplies.

The So What: The lessons may be timeless, but the data, and the integrity, are wearing thin.

4. Our guts and the oceans share the same bacteria

Here’s a name that trips off the tongue: akkermansia muciniphila. This is the gut bacterium that probiotics marketers have spent a decade pitching as a metabolic miracle worker. It turns out to have a saltier backstory.

Boffins at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology found that Akkermansia’s marine cousins thrive in the open ocean by degrading fucoidan, a brown-algae sugar chemically akin to the mucin lining our intestines.

Same molecular toolkit, same hair-like appendages, same gene cluster arrangement. The implication: a microbe linked to obesity, diabetes and healthspan didn’t evolve for us, but for seaweed, and now helps lock away up to 550 million tonnes of CO2 annually.

The So What: Longevity science and climate biology share a microbial backbone we are only beginning to unravel.

Cultural nugget of the week: Matisse in moving technicolor (powered by Google)

The SF Museum of Modern Art has partnered with Google to bring Henri Matisse's Femme au chapeau — the 1905 painting that scandalised Paris and launched the Fauvist movement — to life, using Google's Veo video generation model.

See the video below - visitors to the exhibition can watch a Veo-created film that using animated archival postcards and photographs of Paris. This feels like a rare example of the technology genuinely deepening — rather than displacing — human engagement with culture.

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

1. One of its founders skewers ‘lazy’ impact capital

Acumen’s founder Jacqueline Novogratz delivers a spicy take on an industry she’s helped develop. She argues that impact investing has scaled into the trillions but is “drifting from its purpose” - delivering money to safe, de-risked bets in developed markets, that also happen to have some impact metrics.

She says there’s no shortage of capital, just a shortage of courage. Too much “impact” money chases safe bets while adaptation finance and fragile markets starve. Novogratz champions smart subsidy, blended finance (her Hardest-to-Reach Initiative is a $250 million vehicle in eight African countries), and philanthropy as catalytic first dollar. Her closing test: did capital actually reach the people who needed it most?

The So What: Trillions labelled “impact” mean little if courage and patient capital still skip the hardest places.

2. Are you a patient if you’re not yet sick?

Welcome to the era of “pre-diagnosis”. Bart Collet notices a big change in how medicine is delivered, and our care system hasn’t accounted for.

He points out Oxford’s AI, validated across 72,000 NHS patients, spots heart failure risk five years out with 86% accuracy from routine CT scans. Mayo’s REDMOD catches pancreatic cancer up to three years before clinical diagnosis. Clairity Breast, FDA-authorised and now in NCCN guidelines, is already in clinical use.

The science is sprinting, the social architecture is asleep. With 84% of US health insurers already using AI in claims processes and predictive inference sitting in a regulatory grey zone, “pre-diagnosed” is becoming a social category with no statutory firewall protecting credit, insurance, or employment decisions. In Australia they’ve just regulated against insurance companies using genetics, but nothing as far as I can see about smart AI models that are increasingly relied upon to predict outcomes.

The So What: Early detection without legal guardrails turns “healthy” into a temporary status nobody consented to lose.

3. Who Actually Buys Longevity? A Map of the Healthspan Economy

This segmentation report challenges the simplistic idea of “the longevity consumer.” With the global wellness economy is projected to hit $9.8 trillion by 2029, longevity is in fact 13 distinct buyer archetypes, three institutional layers, and three opportunity zones (premium, scalable, frontier).

McKinsey research cited shows maximalist optimisers are roughly 25% of consumers but more than 40% of spend, while up to 60% of consumers across markets now rank healthy ageing as a top priority. The kicker: scaling proven prevention could generate $12.5 trillion in annual economic value by 2050, with two-thirds of impact from prevention. Yet Switzerland still spends just 1.9% of health outlays on it (and Australia 1.4%). Women’s longevity, the report insists, is a core market, not a wellness sub-niche.

The So What: Stop selling “longevity.” Start selling the specific kind of longer life each buyer actually wants.

4. How to make the food industry sustainable

This essay says the only way we’re going to change the food system is to make it profitable to be sustainable.

In 2021 Danone CEO Emmanuel Faber was kicked out by activist investors who thought you couldn't sell yogurts and save the planet at the same time. This has been a pattern - Annie's, Stonyfield, Honest Tea, Ben & Jerry's - prove mission alone cannot compete with spreadsheets and bean counters (and stock markets). The bean counters aren’t counting the right beans - soil health, nutrient density, and worker welfare are rounded to zero.

The way out is not another values pitch but a redirection of the profit motive itself. Rockefeller's True Cost of American Food estimated real food prices at roughly three times supermarket levels once externalities are tallied.

He proposes a two-part fix: establish the science showing living soils produce more flavourful, nutrient-dense food (eaters reliably pay for taste, rarely for virtue), and bake externalities into accounting standards so cheap conventional food stops looking cheap.

Do both and the regenerative cracker, sold at Costco on a four-crop rotation, becomes the most profitable cracker. The activist investor pushing for 20% growth is then unwittingly pushing for more rotation acres, healthier soil, and fairer farm labour.

The So What: The fix for purpose-driven food isn’t braver CEOs. It’s pricing what the spreadsheet currently ignores.

AI term of the week: Context Maxxing

A new Brookings paper describes"context-maxxing": using open-source agent harnesses (like OpenClaw) to control your own data, prompts, and AI workflows rather than handing context to the main vendors. The idea is that proprietary AI erodes cognitive agency by capturing user context while limiting reuse, whereas user-controlled setups build three reinforcing skills: specification, orchestration, and exploration. Worth a look if you want AI to amplify your thinking rather than absorb it. Lots of tutorials and videos around rolling your own second brain - would love to hear how people are getting on with it.

That’s all for now, happy weekend, everyone.

- Stephen

1. Mariana Mazzucato wants to fix economics

Celebrity economist Mariana ‘mission-driven’ Mazzucato and Spain’s Deputy PM have launched the Global Council on New Economics for the 21st Century, a sort of constitutional convention for the field. It aims to give the discipline a wake up call.

Picking Spain is smart - it’s the top performing European country currently, and having a moment. Economics hasn’t actually fared very well as a tool for stability and rising living standards since the 1980s. The Council’s beef is not with markets but with the orthodoxies treated as physics: that they self-correct, that governments should stand back, that growth trickles down. Drawing on Mazzucato’s forthcoming book, The Common Good Economy, the body will interrogate eight cross-cutting assumptions, from what we measure to who governance serves, with reform proposals due autumn 2027.

The So What: Economics is overdue for a reckoning. This could force it justify its assumptions, and impacts.

2. Maybe stress is killing you after all

For years, I’ve been a happy believer in hormesis, the idea that mild stress makes you bounce back stronger. From Nietzsche to David Sinclair, this appealing idea was one of the reasons why I suffer cold showers and try to have a fast day once a week. It also makes me fret less about doing too much and living on caffeine-fuelled deadlines. That rather satisfying idea may be up for question.

A new University of Sheffield study suggests the opposite. By manipulating the Integrated Stress Response (ISR) in tens of thousands of fruit flies, the team found that suppressing the GCN2–ATF4 axis, not activating it, extended lifespan robustly, even under dietary stress.

Chronic ISR activation, by contrast, shortened lives. The findings complicate yeast and C. elegans orthodoxy and reframe ISR as a pharmacological target for healthspan, not just disease.

The So What: Aging biology keeps humbling its own dogmas. Hormesis as a theory is coming under stress - let’s see if it bounces back stronger.

3. Mapping planetary intelligence

Geoff Mulgan often appears in this newsletter, as someone who is consistently both novel and bold. He hasn’t got the memo about staying in your lane. His latest paper for the Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions, argues that humanity’s biggest challenges, from pandemics to climate change, demand systematic study of “macro-cognition,” the orchestration of intelligence at planetary scale.

Drawing on examples from ICARUS satellite tracking of animals, Google Maps, global medicine and the International Solar Alliance, which aims to mobilise $1 trillion in investment by 2030, Mulgan identifies seven organising capabilities of intelligence at any scale: anchoring, updating, nesting, sharing, balancing, generating and synthesising.

Most existing “intelligence assemblies” cover only a few. The COVID-19 response, which forced decision-makers to juggle sixteen distinct types of knowledge with no method for weighing them, exposed how poorly we synthesise across domains.

The So What: Designing planetary intelligence is now as urgent as designing AI. We are starving the former.

4. Guess what? Homelessness is not intractable

The evaluation of Britain’s £50 million ‘Everyone In’ Social Investment Pilot offers hard evidence that blended capital works. This is systems investing in the wild, and I’m thrilled to see hard data, which is rare.

Seeded with £30 million of public and Better Society Capital money, then expanded with a further £138 million of private investment, the scheme procured 528 properties through three fund managers, with 91% sited in the local authorities of greatest homelessness need. The London leases ran 15% cheaper than private lets; other stakeholders saved up to 22% versus private rents and over 70% versus temporary accommodation. And it makes money - the portfolio is forecast to yield ~8% real returns by 2030.

The So What: Patient capital can house the homeless cost-effectively, but only when wrapped around relational, person-centred services.

Conference hack of the week - Farah The Fox

The Skoll World Forum in Oxford has just concluded and this custom GPT was created to help people navigate the potentially overwhelming array of attendees, speakers and topics. It’s a great idea and I expect conference organizers will be increasingly using these tools to help attendees network more productively. We’ve been building a similar tool, so would be great to hear from any meeting organizers looking to test out this kind of next generation, AI-powered event support.

That’s all for now, happy weekend everyone.

- Stephen

1. Systems investing compared to other investing types

One of my most consistent themes in this newsletter is the topic of Systems Investing, and I’ll keep hammering the topic until it becomes everyday language. This article does a nice job in framing it in relation to a lot of other things you may be more familiar with.

The framework charts a spectrum from responsible investing through impact, blended finance and social movement investing to systemic investing.

His definition is compact: a multi-stakeholder, poly-capital ecosystem approach. The shift is from single instruments toward deploying financial, social, political, natural, relational, human and narrative capital simultaneously across an ecosystem of connected initiatives. He cites TransCap Initiative, FEST and TWIST as global momentum, with Raven Indigenous Outcomes Fund and the Afro-Caribbean Business Network’s microloan fund in Canada.

The key point he’s making - familiar with LF readers - is that polycrisis problems (housing, climate, mental health, polarisation) cannot be solved by any single instrument or actor working alone.

The So What: Money is one form of capital among many. Systemic change requires deploying all of them with different risk profiles and project types.

2. Philanthropy: asleep at the wheel? A better approach.

This piece in SSIR, argues philanthropy is sleepwalking through the most serious test of civilian protection norms in generations.

Drawing on 25 years across the Pentagon, UN and NGOs, Jenny McAvoy notes the civil society ecosystem has already been built and have a track record, with groups such as the U.S. Dept of Defense's Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response framework, now being adopted in Iraq, Nigeria and the Netherlands.

The problem is funding: fragmented, project-based, concentrated on a few actors, with multi-year flexible grants rare. McAvoy calls for a dedicated collaborative fund modelled on Freedom Fund and Co-Impact, treating civilian protection as a systemic challenge rather than a crisis line item.

The So What: Funding ecosystems, not ad hoc projects, is how philanthropy delivers on its promise.

3. A playbook for philanthropists who want to get AI

Another take on philanthropy’s failings, this time with an AI focus. Mike Kubzansky, departing CEO of Omidyar Network, argues in SSIR that philanthropy is treating AI as peripheral, and it should be core.

AI should be front and center for philanthropists: state legislatures filed over 1,500 AI bills this year, up from 200 three years ago, while trillions in private capital flow toward capability of frontier models rather than good governance.

Kubzansky’s playbook draws on automobile safety history (regulation accelerated adoption, not the other way round) and recent legal wins against Meta and YouTube for addictive design. He points to Omidyar’s Anthropic equity stake alongside Ford and Nathan Cummings Foundations, and the new Humanity.AI coalition of nearly a dozen funders, as templates for the bigger, faster, coalition-based posture the moment demands.

The So What: Philanthropy’s cautious approach feels like an out of date luxury.

4. Vampires in Power: Immortality as an Authoritarian Fantasy

This piece from the NY Times discussed last September’s hot-mic moment when Xi Jinping and Putin, both 72, were caught discussing organ replacement and indefinite life. This is part of a trend of (almost always male) billionaires and political elite deciding that death is optional.

Peter Thiel funds plasma transfusions. Sam Altman has put $180 million into Retro Biosciences. Bezos backs Altos Labs. Saudi Arabia’s Hevolution (not a particularly gender inclusive name…) Foundation runs a $1 billion annual budget bankrolling Diamandis’s $101 million XPrize Healthspan among other things. Singapore-based Immortal Dragons is funding research into “brainless clones” as backup bodies. The article makes the point that radical life extension has become intertwined with the excess concentration of power; longevity as alchemy. Normal rules dont apply, so why would biology?

The So What: Longevity science risks becoming a political tool and cause of societal division if it’s seen as the luxury for dictators and billionaires.

Bonus: Cultural Lodestone of the Week

Hermann Hesse’s The Glass Bead Game (1943), the novel that won him the Nobel Prize, imagines a 25th century future, where humanity’s life’s work is the Game: an intricate symbolic language that synthesises music, mathematics, philosophy and art into single meditative sequences, linking a Bach fugue to a mathematical proof to a line of Confucius. The protagonist, Joseph Knecht, rises to become the highest master of the Game, then walks away.

His realisation is that any system of knowledge sealed off from lived experience eventually calcifies.

Not sure I need to make the connection to today’s LLMs any clearer. AI tools can now do by algorithm what Castalia’s monks did by hand. Timothy Leary was on to this in 1986. Hesse’s warning still resonates: surfacing connections is the easy part. Incorporating them into a life is still the work. Hesse wrote the user manual for AI eighty years early. And gave us an exit path.

That’s all for now, happy weekend everyone.

- Stephen

1. A practice guide to systems investing

TransCap Initiative has published a practice guide for systemic investing - what many are seeing as the next iteration of impact investing. Where standard impact investing may allocate capital to a single company selling say, plant protein, systemic investing tries to flip entire energy systems or food networks.

The guide introduces "transformational intent" as its core concept: not a fixed goal but a directional north star, held lightly and revised as complex systems shift.

Practical tools include scenario development, the 2x2 matrix method, and the Three Horizons framework. A good case study is Builders Vision - a holistic approach towards ocean strategy, that connects a north star to four outcome areas across blue economy, policy, and ecosystem health.

The So What: Capital that targets whole systems, not single companies, is the next frontier of impact investing.

2. Genes do matter for healthspan, after all

A study from the Weizmann Institute has found that genes matter about twice as much as previously estimated - accounting for up to 50 percent of the variations in human lifespan.

They analyzed sets of twins, filtered out accidents and infections, and uncovered the major genetic influence on biological aging.

The So What: DNA plays a larger role than previously estimated in determining how long we live.

3. A seismic political shift - from caretakers to combatants

Australian pollster Kos Samaras offers a view of Western democratic politics: the post-1945 consensus culture, built on managed centrism, absorbed interests, and projected calm, is collapsing. Voters are not punishing incumbents for bad policy. They are punishing them for loyalty to the status quo - an economic settlement that has delivered a generation of stagnant wages, asset inflation, and structural lock-out.

The demand is for combatants: leaders who name enemies and fight without apology. This happens on the left as well as the right - Zohran Mamdani’s 2025 New York mayoral win, the UK Greens’ quadrupled parliamentary representation, and Australian Gen Z’s drift from major parties suggest this is not just a right-wing phenomenon. The party that finds an authentic left combatant first, he argues, will own the decade.

The So What: Institutional loyalty to a broken economic settlement is now a political death sentence, everywhere.

4. Cognitive Rot is a thing after all

A study from UCLA, MIT, and Carnegie Mellon is the first to establish a causal link between AI dependency and cognitive erosion.

In experiments, 350 Americans completing fraction equations with GPT-5 assistance, the AI group initially outperformed the control. But when access was cut after just ten minutes, their problem-solving accuracy fell sharply and, crucially, so did their willingness to keep trying.

A separate experiment with 1,200 participants across maths and reading tasks replicated the finding. The researchers invoke the “boiling frog”: each individual act of AI delegation feels costless, but the cumulative effect on what they call "productive struggle" — the very mechanism through which skills are built — could be irreversible by the time it is visible.

One bright spot: participants who used AI for hints rather than answers fared considerably better once the chatbot was removed.

The So What: AI dependency may be as bad - or worse - for cognitive health as social media.

AI Tool of the Week: Polsia - Autonomous companies

For a mere $49 a month and 20% of revenues, Polsia will create and run a company with zero employees.

That’s all for now, happy weekend everyone.

- Stephen

1. Philanthropy needs a new Operating System

The 2026 Global Philanthropy Forum wanted to redesign philanthropy’s “operating system” from scratch. The theme, “Architecting the Future,” was aspirational; nonprofits are mostly consumers rather than shapers of technology. Could that change?

Maybe. Philanthropy can play a role as “society’s risk capital” - governments and corporations are short term-focused, leaving foundations as the only actors with genuine tolerance for long-term, high-risk, high-leverage bets. For those philanthropists looking to make real, substantive, systemic change, there are now more options than ever.

The So What? Philanthropy must choose between being an architect, shaper and maker of the future or a polite, passive donor.

2. With AI + quantum, today’s cryptography may be toast

The internet’s security just got an expiry date. Papers from Google and Caltech startup Oratomic reveal that AI is now accelerating quantum computing breakthroughs in alarming ways (in particular for cryptographers).

A quantum computer could now theoretically break encryption with only tens of thousands of qubits, dramatically down from previous estimates of a million. Google has developed an implementation of a decrypting algorithm ten times more efficient than any prior method. Cloudflare, which secures a significant fraction of the internet, has already accelerated its preparation deadline to 2029, six years ahead of the NIST target.

The So What? AI accelerating quantum is not a future scenario. It is happening now.

3. AI energy breakthrough

AI has a voracious energy appetite, and researchers at Tufts University may have delivered the GLP-1 equivalent. They built a ‘neuro-symbolic’ AI that combines neural networks with human-style logical reasoning, cutting up to 99% energy consumption.

AI data centers already account for more than 10% of U.S. electricity production, with demand projected to double by 2030. The Tufts POC showed that training required only 1% of the energy used by a conventional model, completing training in 34 minutes against a day and a half for traditional models.

The novelty is in the architecture: instead of brute-force pattern matching, the system applies rules and abstract categories, the way a competent human actually reasons. Whether this scales remains to be seen, but the direction of travel is exciting.

The So What? Smarter AI architecture, not just more and bigger chips, may be the real path to sustainable intelligence.

4. Open AI’s New Deal for the intelligence age

OpenAI has published a sweeping industrial policy framework arguing that the transition to superintelligence demands a response as ambitious as the New Deal.

The document is notable less for its novelty than for who is saying it: the company building the technology is now explicitly calling for redistribution mechanisms.

Key proposals include a Public Wealth Fund giving every citizen a direct stake in AI-driven growth, portable benefits decoupled from employment, “efficiency dividends” converting AI productivity gains into shorter working weeks, and adaptive safety nets that automatically scale up when displacement metrics breach defined thresholds.

On governance, OpenAI proposes that frontier AI companies adopt Public Benefit Corporation structures with explicit commitments to broadly share benefits, and be more robust in preventing systems against ‘insider capture’. Given OpenAI’s various pivots, these reads with some irony. Anyway, the implicit acknowledgment is striking: markets alone will not distribute the gains.

The So What: When the builders of superintelligence call for redistribution and capital taxes, all policy options are on the table.

AI Tool of the Week: Paperclip

Paperclip is an open-source platform that organises AI agents into structured companies, with goal alignment, budget limits, ticket-based oversight, and full traceability built in. Claude has just introduced Managed Agents, which does something similar, although only for its own agents, whereas Paperclip works with any agent.

I’ve just built my first “virtual company” with Paperclip - a new startup to help buildings manage their pets, and to see the ‘CEO’ develop the launch plan then ‘hire’ a CMO and CTO who then get added to the agent stack, is fascinating. Here’s a video interview with the Paperclip founder that provides more context.

That’s all for now, happy weekend everyone.

- Stephen

1. A fresh take on which jobs will be aixed

This is a new take on “AI exposure equals job loss” - it suggest what matters is not what AI can do, but the coordination cost of separating tasks within a job.

In weak-bundle occupations (low coordination cost), AI automates one task, the human narrows to the residual role, output floods the market, prices fall, and the least-productive workers are displaced. Modelled results show employment dropping 7% and labour income falling 12%. Strong-bundle jobs, where splitting tasks destroys value, are largely protected. Radiologists are the canonical example: the job is far more than reading scans.

The So What? AI job risk turns less on task exposure and more on whether your role can be cleanly disaggregated.

2. The case for citizens as entrepreneurial change makers

Britain’s civic life feels broken. James Plunkett’s case for an “activation layer” between institutions and citizens offers an attractive alternative model.

The Citizen First model, piloted in Essex and now running in Liverpool, pays 8-10 selected local to quit their jobs for a year to develop community ventures. The Essex trial returned £6.26 for every £1 invested. Liverpool’s programme was 20-times oversubscribed, with 90% of applicants from economically disadvantaged backgrounds and a third already securing follow-on funding. A national network of 70 such programmes would cost roughly £30m annually. The obstacles are less financial than structural: siloed budgets, no civic infrastructure mandate.

The So What? Converting lived experience into scalable ventures requires institutional scaffolding, not just good intentions.

3. The case for Pet-Friendly Aged Care

This month’s Ageing Australia magazine makes the case that the senior housing is dropping the ball on pets; dangerous since they’re great at companionship.

A recent survey found 96% of Australians believe residents should have pets, yet only 18% of facilities allow them.

The health case is solid: 78% of respondents report pets improve both mental and physical health, with reduced loneliness the most-cited benefit. Providers blame lack of education (45%), limited resources (42%), and facility design constraints (45%). Meanwhile, of 325 home-care recipients, fewer than one in ten receive pet-related support, and 22% delay their own medical care to look after their animal.

The So What? Pet-friendly policy isn’t a feel-good add-on. It’s a measurable lever for wellbeing in an ageing population. .

4. The case against scaling up

For two decades, “can it scale?” has been philanthropy’s default filter. This essay in Stanford Social Innovation Review challenges that.

The race to scale - potentially influenced by the startup ‘blitzscaling’ orthodoxy has influenced which organizations get funded and which problems get defined because it favours standardized outputs (hectares restored, households served) over the harder-to-count stuff that actually determines whether change endures.

Watershed restoration that looks great on paper collapses without local groundwater agreements. Community trust can’t easily be put in a spreadsheet. As the world behaves less like a machine and more as a living ecosystem, single solutions designed for replication hit their limits fast. Kak’s prescription: fund the bridges and lighthouses, not just the ships.

The So What? Complexity-era impact investing needs roots-and-relationships metrics, not just reach-and-replication ones.

AI Tool of the Week: Persyn

A useful tool to make images and video of AI people, or indeed of real people. It uses Google’s AI back end but is more usable and designed to help with eg marketing campaigns. Here’s one of me fulfilling my long ambition to ride a unicycle…

That’s all for now, happy weekend everyone.

- Stephen

1. Biodiversity loss: a national security threat

The UK government has published an alarming intelligence-style assessment: ecosystem collapse is now a tier-one national security risk.

The numbers are eyebrow-raising: monitored wildlife populations declined 73% between 1970 and 2020, freshwater species fell 84%, and six of nine planetary boundaries have already been crossed.

The Amazon, currently at 17% deforestation, is estimated to collapse at 20-25% when combined with temperature rises and forest fires — an uncomfortably thin margin. Coral reefs in Southeast Asia and boreal forests could start collapsing from 2030; rainforests and mangroves from 2050. Downstream consequences run from crop failures and pandemic risk through to interstate conflict over arable land. The total annual value of ecosystem services to the UK alone was £87 billion in 2022 (3% of GDP).

The So What? Ecosystem collapse reframes nature loss as geopolitical risk, demanding security-grade planning responses.

2. The $10 trillion nature economy

The World Economic Forum has published a new report identifying 50 investible opportunities in the nature-positive economy — a market the report values at $10 trillion annually by 2030. The green economy (largely energy transition) already represents $8 trillion in listed equity and has outperformed global equities by 59% since 2008.

The 50 opportunities span 13 sectors — from precision farming and alternative proteins to circular chemicals and data centre water management — and are categorised by readiness: some can be financed through conventional lending today; others need venture capital or blended finance to reach commercial scale.

The So What? Investing in nature makes good financial sense; this report helps answer the question of how to actually do it.

3. This dog may change cancer medicine

Sydney tech exec Paul Conyngham may have changed the face of cancer.

When his rescue dog Rosie was given one to six months to live after a cancer diagnosis, he fed her genomic data into ChatGPT and AlphaFold, identified tumour neoantigens, and designed a personalised mRNA vaccine for $3,000.

UNSW’s RNA Institute manufactured the bespoke vaccine in under two months. The tennis-ball-sized tumour on Rosie’s leg had shrunk by roughly 75% by mid-March. Moderna and Merck are spending billions on the same mRNA approach for humans, with Phase 3 trials underway. The pipeline — sequence the tumour, model the mutations, design a targeted mRNA vaccine — can now be compressed from years into months using freely available AI tools.

The So What? AI just democratised personalised cancer vaccine design; the bottleneck is now regulatory, not scientific.

4. Stem cells reduce frailty in older adults

Frailty afflicts a substantial share of older adults and has had no effective therapy. A new study showed that mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) from young adult donors showed dose-dependent improvements in the 6-minute walk test six months post-injection, with higher doses producing greater gains.

The researchers also identified a new biomarker: sTIE2, a protein associated with vascular inflammation, was significantly reduced.

Prior studies show MSCs (approved by the FDA in 2024) also increase brain volume and enhance cognition in Alzheimer’s patients, suggesting a broader anti-ageing platform.

The So What? Long limited to race horses and athletes, stem cell therapy moving from fringe to clinical reality, with frailty as a potential first breakout sector.

AI Lesson of the Week: AI Product Factory

Practical video for those interested in using AI tools to make money. Learn from this guy who creates and launches a new business every month in his AI venture studio. (Thanks @Michael for the tip!)

That’s all for now - happy weekend everyone.

- Stephen