Four For Friday | February 7, 2025
LF159 | A decentralized FDA, collaborative AI agent teams, the 'violence' of market rate returns and impact of climate change on health + RelevanceAI.
Welcome to Looking Forward’s Four For Friday. Four things that have piqued my interest this week, together with a bonus: AI Tip of The Week. Delayed sending due to Tokyo trip, red-eye flight and wrangling kids. Anyway, enjoy!
What is we could democratize FDA trials?
This report from the Institute for Progress makes the case that US clinical trials are in need of a radical overhaul. As an example, one drug (dapagliflozin) was approved for diabetes, but took six years before being tested and approved for kidney disease and heart failure.
Drawing inspiration from Britain's RECOVERY covid-19 drug trial that cost just 1/80th of a traditional trial—the report outlines nine policy proposals, from simplifying consent forms to embracing AI for FDA reviews.
A colleague of mine has created a radical solution to this - a distributed FDA.
The So What? Expect to see more room for such radical thinking emerge as the new US Administration takes a sledgehammer to the status quo.
Collaborative AI Agents
Too much AI discussion is about whether it’s going to destroy jobs (which it will), increase jobs (which it will), or destroy humanity (jury is still out). This whitepaper takes a more positive sum view - with a “Level-N AI Collaboration”, which argues that AI assistance can move beyond task delegation to create ‘dynamic, multi-dimensional partnerships’. In essence:
AI personas work together as specialized team members, collaborating with humans and each other to solve complex problems
The approach combines multi-dimensional problem-solving, feedback-driven collaboration, and dynamic adaptability.
Teams of AI personas can be customized and scaled based on specific needs, from product launches to business optimization.
Human leaders remain in control, directing AI teams while focusing on strategy and creativity.
The So What? All of us should be re-thinking our org charts to include AI team members.
The violence of market rate returns
Thought provoking piece by the Delta Fund that highlights the importance of framing. ‘Market-rate returns’ sound reasonable enough, but this piece suggest that they normalize exploitation, making corporate greed seem like natural economic law.
For example, retail giants use poverty wages, forcing taxpayers to subsidize workers' basic needs, companies blame inflation for price hikes while reporting record-breaking profit margins, healthcare firms deny care and inflate drug prices, prioritizing profits over lives and private equity has a record of stripping companies bare, leaving debt-laden shells and unemployed workers behind.
On the upside, there are positive signs of organizations charting a new course:
Supporing diverse emerging fund managers like Mission Driven Finance’s Capital Partners.
Converting business ownership to employee trusts like Common Trust's Groundwork Fund.
Creating resident-owned housing cooperatives like ROC USA.
Supporting community land trusts like Grounded Solutions Network.
Investing in community-controlled real estate funds like the Dearfield Fund
Supporting innovative models like Trust Neighborhoods that give residents collective control over their community's future.
The So What: The lack of priced externalities in our current system means the vaunted market mechanism lacks key data. Recognizing that is a starting point for change.
Human health impact of climate chage
An Oliver Wyman and WEF report that charts climate change’s massive costs on global health systems by 2050 - around 14.5 million deaths and over $12.5 trillion in economic losses from six categories: floods, sea level rise, tropical storms, heat waves, wildfires and droughts.
The report lays out additional sobering facts such as:
A further $1.1 trillion burden on healthcare systems
Floods are the deadliest threat, accounting for 8.5 million deaths
Heat waves are the priciest, with an economic toll of $7.1 trillion, due to lost productivity
Vector-borne (e..g mosquito) diseases will impact 500m more people
Biggest impacts are going to be Africa and SE Asia, but all regions impacted.
The report lays out a theory of impact from climate hazard through landscape change impacting health determinants and then health outcomes. Of course this is endogenous - we have the power to change these pathways if we - collectively - decide to.
The So What? We don’t just need more reports, we need concerted, coordinated, local-to-regional actions. These stats are useful, but coordinated action will be better.
Bonus AI Tool:
RelevanceAI - a powerful AI agent builder I’ve been enjoying recently. I’m part of an AI agent building community and a recent product they made using Relevance is a team of 20+ AI agents to create an artificial executive assistant that does many routine tasks, and is controlled by chatting with it in WhatsApp.
That’s all for this week. As always, feedback welcome. Feel free to share insights or links of interest.
- Stephen