Four For Friday | May 31, 2024

LF125 | Does older mean poorer? The Longevity Imperative, looming Cold War 2 and 21st Century Statecraft.

Welcome to Looking Forward’s Four For Friday. Four things that have piqued my interest this week. Enjoy!

Does older mean poorer?

UK think tank Ditchley is hosting a fascinating, invite-only event in Montreal in June on the provocative topic, ‘Does Older Mean Poorer?’ The pre-event white paper lays out the context for the questions, highlighting how the world economy has benefitted from a rising number of workers (especially in China) lowering wages, keeping interest rates low and boosting GDP, and that era is coming to an end with ageing populations. It will pose questions such as:

• How will demography influence economic outcomes in the future?

• Is it possible to decouple economic growth from the dynamics of aging population trends and remain prosperous?

• How might the participation rates of women, of older people and the disadvantaged be increased?

• What differences might science, technological innovations, including applications of artificial intelligence and automation, make to growth and prosperity? What new market opportunities might emerge in response to a changing demographic age structure?

I’ll be joining the event and sharing some perspectives around how technology and AI can play a part in the necessary transition of our economies to this new reality.

Book recommendation: The Longevity Imperative

Speaking of which, I’ve just finished reading The Longevity Imperative by Prof Andrew Scott, which follows on from the popular ‘100 Year Life’ he wrote with Lynda Gratton. This is in the sweet spot for Looking Forward (and the Ditchley event above) as it looks at the multi-faceted changes that society needs to go through to adapt to changing demographics.

The booked is packed with useful data and actionable insights that can be applied across different industries, but at its core it’s about reframing an ageing society into a longevity-focused one - he calls it evergreen.

“The challenge we face is to adapt to a radical change in the human condition – that the young can now expect to become the very old. That is why we need to seize the longevity imperative and become ‘evergreen’. We need to focus on constructing a society that prepares us for longer lives and ensuring that the quality of life matches its new found quantity.”

I’ll be circling back on this topic in coming editions and diving deeper into some of the practical steps that policy makers and businesses can take.

An existential risk trumps longevity and the environment

A line I read a few months back about conflict struck me - kissing your kids good night in their own bed is a luxury. Unfortunately, whether it’s Ukraine, Gaza or an increasing number of conflicts around the world, the world is getting hotter.

As such, this concerning post from a thoughtful economist shows that caring about the wellbeing of older adults, or even that of the planet itself, is a bit of a peacetime luxury. He makes a plausible case that the leaders of China and Russia are agitating towards a new global conflict, with Ukraine in Europe and Taiwan in Asia the launchpads. With a seemingly inexorable escalation of tensions towards boiling point in Taiwan and a raise in populist, incompetent, corrupt and nativist politicians, the ‘luxury’ of being able to focus on protecting our planet and vulnerable people may be just that.

Logically, all of the advocates for the environment and healthy ageing should make avoiding global conflict their number one priority.

21st century statecraft

I wouldn’t leave you hanging. In my view, this bold, mission-driven thinking is not only a better way of running government policy amidst the escalating polycrisis that we find ourselves in, but more than likely the only way out. This new paper, from a regular in these pages, Mariana Mazzucato, explores mission-driven thinking in the context of the (likely) new Labour government in the UK. It lays out six principles for mission-driven thinking:

• Principle 1: Missions should set bold, audacious goals to provide a clear purpose and direction

• Principle 2: Missions should focus on the long term

• Principle 3: Missions should galvanise action beyond central government

• Principle 4: Missions should build, nurture and grow a ‘coalition of the willing’

• Principle 5: Missions should be based on a new approach to policy design

• Principle 6: Missions should direct public and private investment in line with mission goals

The document also includes this schema listing potential missions for a new UK government and view into the multiple different layers of the bureaucracy that will need to be activated to deliver them.

My favorite example is a suggestion for a health-equity-span mission:

The next government will need to tackle the critical and immediate challenge of reducing NHS waiting times and ensuring patients with health conditions are diagnosed earlier. But an overarching mission to, for instance, eliminate the gap in healthy life expectancy between babies born in the wealthiest part of the country and babies born in the poorest part of the country by 2050 creates the room to address the immediate crisis (such as waiting lists and speed of diagnosis) while inspiring innovations towards the longer term horizon of tackling the social determinants of health.

Lots to get excited about, if we can focus people’s attention on solving these kind of problems, and pull back from rattling the sabres.

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That’s all for this week. As always, feedback welcome. Feel free to share insights or links of interest.

- Stephen